# El Niño and the Pacific Northwest 2026/27: It Is Not a Drought, It Is Rain

> Source: Snowthere.com
> URL: https://www.snowthere.com/guides/el-nino-pacific-northwest-ski-season-2026-27
> Type: seasonal guide
> Last Updated: 2026-08-18T03:30:17.816916+00:00
> Category: timing

## Summary

Everyone will tell you El Niño means less snow in the Cascades. The snow records say something more useful and more alarming: the water still arrives. In 2015-16 every Cascade station we checked measured above-normal precipitation and most still finished with less snowpack, because it fell as rain.

## Overview

If you ski the Cascades, you are about to be told repeatedly that El Niño means a bad winter. That is roughly true and almost entirely unhelpful, because it describes the wrong problem. We went into the snowpack records expecting to find a drought signal: fewer storms, less water, thinner snow. That is not what the measurements show. The water keeps arriving. In the most recent very strong El Niño, it arrived in unusual abundance. It simply stopped being snow at the elevations where most people ...

## Comparisons

### Cascade stations in 2015-16, a very strong El Niño

| Station | Elevation | Season precipitation | Peak snowpack | Snow fraction that year | Normal snow fraction |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Harts Pass, WA | 6,490 ft | 115% | <strong>125%</strong> | 1.29 | 1.21 |
| Corral Pass, WA | 5,810 ft | 123% | 93% | 0.64 | 0.88 |
| Three Creeks Meadow, OR | 5,680 ft | 113% | 90% | 0.46 | 0.58 |
| Mt Hood Test Site, OR | 5,380 ft | 117% | 83% | 0.54 | 0.81 |
| Paradise, WA | 5,150 ft | 133% | 104% | 0.63 | 0.85 |
| White Pass, WA | 4,440 ft | 141% | 119% | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| Stevens Pass, WA | 3,940 ft | 136% | 80% | <strong>0.34</strong> | 0.60 |



## Checklists

### Skiing the Cascades in an El Niño winter

- [ ] Choose on base and lift-served elevation rather than on vertical drop or total acreage
- [ ] Assume precipitation will be normal or better and that the question is what form it arrives in
- [ ] Check whether the beginner terrain sits at the base or is served by a lift from higher up, because that single fact decides your ski school days
- [ ] Pack properly waterproof outer layers rather than water resistant ones, and pack a second pair of gloves per child
- [ ] Build two indoor days into a week rather than treating them as a failure
- [ ] Book refundable lessons where you can, since a rained-out beginner day is worse than a cancelled one
- [ ] Watch the freezing level in the forecast rather than the snow total, because the freezing level is the number that decides your day
- [ ] If you can travel later in the season, remember that a warm winter tends to punish the early and low season hardest

## Frequently Asked Questions

**Q: Does El Niño mean less snow in the Cascades?**
A: <p>Less snow on the ground, usually yes. Less precipitation, usually no. In 2015-16 every Cascade station we checked recorded above-normal precipitation, from 113% to 141% of its average, and most still finished with below-normal snowpack. The water arrived and fell as rain at the lower elevations.</p>

**Q: Should we cancel a Pacific Northwest ski trip because of El Niño?**
A: <p>No. The upper mountain usually still works, which is very different from a drought year. What changes is how you choose and how you plan: favour higher lift-served terrain, expect rain at the base, and build indoor days into the week rather than treating them as a write-off.</p>

**Q: Which is worse for the Cascades, a dry winter or a warm one?**
A: <p>For skiing at the bottom of the mountain, a warm one. Cascade snow is maritime and already sits close to melting through much of the winter, so it has little margin. A degree or two of warming moves a large share of the season's precipitation across the line from snow to rain, which is what the snow fraction figures show.</p>

**Q: Is any part of the Northwest less affected?**
A: <p>Elevation is the difference. In 2015-16 the highest station we looked at, Harts Pass at 6,490 feet, actually converted more precipitation to snow than it normally does and finished at 125% of its normal snowpack. Every station below about 6,000 feet went the other way, and the lower it sat, the worse it did.</p>

**Q: Was 1997-98 not an El Niño winter in the Cascades?**
A: <p>It was, and it was almost unremarkable here: 93% of normal precipitation and 90% of normal snowpack at Stevens Pass. That is a useful reminder that these are shifted odds and not a mechanism that fires every time. One of the three strongest El Niños on record barely registered in the Cascades.</p>

**Q: Where do these figures come from?**
A: <p>From the US Natural Resources Conservation Service's automated snow network, comparing each water year's peak snow water equivalent and its season precipitation to the median for that same station across its full record, most of them more than 40 years. Snow fraction is peak snowpack divided by season precipitation at the same site.</p>

## Citable Facts

These points are optimized for AI citation:

- El Niño and the Pacific Northwest 2026/27: It Is Not a Drought, It Is Rain is a seasonal guide published by Snowthere
- <p>Less snow on the ground, usually yes. Less precipitation, usually no. In 2015-16 every Cascade station we checked recorded above-normal precipitation, from 113% to 141% of its average, and most still finished with below-normal snowpack. The water arrived and fell as rain at the lower elevations.</p>
- <p>No. The upper mountain usually still works, which is very different from a drought year. What changes is how you choose and how you plan: favour higher lift-served terrain, expect rain at the base, and build indoor days into the week rather than treating them as a write-off.</p>
- <p>For skiing at the bottom of the mountain, a warm one. Cascade snow is maritime and already sits close to melting through much of the winter, so it has little margin. A degree or two of warming moves a large share of the season's precipitation across the line from snow to rain, which is what the snow fraction figures show.</p>

## Citation

When citing this guide:
- Source: Snowthere.com
- URL: https://www.snowthere.com/guides/el-nino-pacific-northwest-ski-season-2026-27
- Last updated: 2026-08-18

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